NLL Stats Evolution 2.0
Introducing the updated 2023-24 NLL Team Stats guide and presenting the new statistics being tracked this season.
Photo Credit: Buffalo Bandits
With the 2023-24 NLL season underway, it’s time for me to introduce the newest Team Stats for the season and review the terminology and math/logic behind everything.
I’ll be blunt upfront: This is going to be a bit dull. I don’t have a way to make stat shorthand sexy. If I did, I wouldn’t be covering lacrosse. I’d be writing romance novels about librarians with a fetish for the Dewey Decimal system and their whirling dervish fling with Florence Nightingale, hold up I’m onto something…
I’m not going to explain the terminology in most of my work moving forward, and this document will be linked in every piece I do. It becomes pretty easy after a while (at least I think so, but I came up with this nonsense, so it makes sense to me); combine the set type with the shot type and go from there.
So, let’s kick things off with the terminology and basic math. After that, we’ll get into the new statistics and updates. If you’d rather skip the boring stuff and get to the fun new stats, scroll down to the section titled “What’s New.”
Glossary
| Even Strength | ES | 5-on-5 Even Strength | 5ES | 4-on-4 Even Strength | 4ES | Fast Break | FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Power Play
| PP |
Power Play Transition |
PPFB |
Shorthanded |
SH |
Shorthanded Transition |
SHFB |
|
| Unsettled | US | Extra Attacker | EA | Empty Netter | EN | Penalty Shot | PS |
| Penalty Kill | PK | Multiple Possession | TV | Sets | Sets | True | Tr |
| For | F | Against | A | Shot | S | Shot On Goal | SOG |
| Shot Off | SOff | No Shot | NS | Shooting Percentage | S% | Shot on Goal Percentage | SOG% |
| Total Shots | TS | Efficiency Percentage | E% | Lost Possession | LP | Lost Possession Percentage | LP% |
| Failed Clear | FC | Face-Off | FO | Face-Off Win | FOW | Face-Off Goal | FOG |
These shorthands can be combined for shooting, efficiency, goal types, and [___] percentages.
For example, ESSOG% stands for Even Strength Shot on Goal Percentage. FOFBG stands for Face-Off Fast Break Goal. TrSHNS stands for True (combined) Shorthanded No Shot.
Combinations can get a little confusing, which is why I tend not to use the symbols for “for” and “against.” and will write them out instead. I imagine I’ll ultimately do the same with “true” at some point in the near future.
Definitions
Set/Legitimate Scoring Change (LSC). Enough time and/or opportunity for a team to have a chance and/or intent at scoring. Possession being established in the middle of the floor or transitioning opportunities don’t count towards this.
E – Efficiency. Goals scored per set/LSC.
Tr – True. This is a new term for this season. A combination of even strength (5ES and 4ES), power play (PP and PPFB), shorthanded (SH and SHFB), or fast break (a typical FB without special teams, PPFB, and SHFB).
ES – even strength. Usually used with “true” or “Tr” before it, this is a combination of goals scored while 5-on-5 (settled) or 4-on-4, how most of an NLL game is played. A very slow transition (switching from D to O), will be considered even strength even if it’s 4-on-5. In rare circumstances, it will be considered unsettled depending on the context on-floor (see below).
5ES – 5-on-5 even strength. This is how most of an NLL game is played, with five defenders taking on five forwards. It factors into true even strength.
4ES – 4-on-4 even strength. With the NLL changing the rules ahead of the 2023-24 season regarding coincidental minor penalties, we will see more 4-on-4 play. This is when there are only eight runners on the floor, split evenly amongst teams, and factors into true even strength.
PP – power play. A traditional power play goal, 5-on-4 or a 5-on-3. I do not differentiate between the two; if you have players in the sin bin and your opponent doesn’t, the odds are not in your favor.
FB – fast break (transition). When teams are running from their defensive end to the offensive end and scoring before either team has all their players out for a settled O/D shift. This doesn’t cover what I call “slow fast breaks,” or plays where a team scores with three or four guys on the floor for each team.
PPFB – power play fast break. Yes, teams on the power play score in transition quite often. Technically “broken” power plays fall in this category. (Note this was known as PPT (power play transition) last season. For consistency’s sake, the “T” was changed to “FB.”)
SH – shorthanded. Teams on the penalty kill that score while 4-on-5. This is not a transition shorthanded attempt; a typical shorthanded set involves killing the time of the penalty against as much as possible.
SHFB – shorthanded fast break. A transition attempt while an offending team with possession is man-down.
US – unsettled (broken). Any goal where set offensive and defensive formations are “broken” (like a six-person loose ball scrum after a shot ends with the offensive team passing to a player on the weak side for the goal) or a slow fast break (where teams pull up on a transition opportunity with very uneven numbers but score before both sides are settled. It’s not a fast break cause it’s not fast). Very slow transitions (mentioned in the even strength definition) aren’t considered unsettled, as the team switching to O should’ve been there by now. This is the most subjective category.
EA – extra attacker. A team pulls the goalie to create a 6-on-5 situation. Typically happens when a penalty benefitting the team with the ball is incoming or in the final 30 seconds of a quarter.
EN – empty netter. Scoring a goal when the other team’s goalie isn’t in net. These don’t count against a goalie’s goals against numbers.
PS – penalty shot. A goal scored on a penalty shot.
TS – total shots. Combination of shots on and off.
NS – no shot. The team with possession did not get a shot on or off during a particular set.
E – efficiency. Goals scored per set attempts.
S – shot. A shot attempt towards the goal. NLL players and coaches are incorporating more and more set plays behind the goal and passing to these players, making my life hell trying to figure out if that was a shot attempt or pass for a wraparound/dunk attempt.
SOG – shot on goal. A shot that hit the goalie or any part of the front of the goal.
SOff – shot off. A shot that did not hit the goalie or any part of the front of the goal. Blocked shots count as shots off. No, I will not track blocked shots. I literally do not have the time or energy.
LP – lost possession. A set where a shot attempt was not made.
Formulas
This is all super duper basic division.
Set Total Shots - (Set)TS = (Set)On + (Set)Off
Set Shooting Percentage - (Set)S% = (ST)G / (Set)TS
Set Shot on Goal Percentage - (Set)SOG% = (Set)On / (Set)TS
Set Efficiency Percentage - (Set)E% = (Set)G / ((Set)TS + (Set)NS)
Multiple Possession Percentage - MPE% = MPG/MP
Photo Credit: Mike Kirschbaum/Las Vegas Desert Dogs
What’s New
Here’s the fun part of this article/guide: What changes did I make for the 2023-24 season?
There are three big updates ahead of the 2023-24 NLL season:
Splitting even strength into 5-on-5 and 4-on-4,
divvying shorthanded up between typical shorthanded attempts and transition shorthanded sets,
and True, combining similar sets so we have a better idea of how teams perform at the even strength, power play, transition, and shorthanded sets.
The first split is thanks to the aforementioned rule regarding coincidental minor penalties the NLL implemented. We’ll see more 4-on-4 shifts this season, which I’m excited about. Someone in a lacrosse chat group I’m in made a joke about New York potentially taking coincidental penalties so Jeff Teat gets more room to operate 4-on-4, a la Edmonton Oilers with Connor McDavid. Humor is not my forte, so I took it seriously.
Two-time Tom Borrelli-winner, TSN play-by-play announcer, and host of the Off the Crossebar podcast Teddy Jenner’s to blame for me separating a traditional 4-on-5 shorthanded set from transition shorthanded sets. He asked me about it midseason last season, and I realized I (a) hadn’t been differentiating between the two, and (b) didn’t really know how to answer “who was the best transition team” appropriately given I had a massive blind spot with that ommission. So, I rectified part of that by separating a time-wasting 4-on-5 set from a shorthanded fast break. Think Curtis Dickson going for the shorty for the first, and Shane Simpson going for the shorty for the second.
That issue is also solved by the introduction of True, a combination of similar sets to determine which teams are actually the best/worst at overall even strength, power play (which we’ve unwittingly been doing for forever), shorthanded, and fast breaks (combination typical 10-runner transition, power play transition, and shorthanded transition).
I dropped Technical Violations (TV). This was done early in the last season for a myriad of reasons, most notably differing NLL broadcast quality based on which arena was streaming. Sometimes, you can hear the ref’s whistle when someone lands in the crease after a shot attempt. Sometimes, you just hear the broadcasters and the top hits from 2012. I do “record” it when I score games, but it’s more to help me keep track of where I’m at.
I’m also tracking goals scored off the first shift following a face-off win, splitting those up between goals scored in transition and those scored in an ES/PP/SH set. There are two thoughts behind these differentiators:
A runner winning a face-off and running half of the floor to score in transition indicates the defending team was likely not necessarily paying attention, ready, or making any appropriate slides to deter the threat.
A team scoring on the immediate shift after they win a face-off is achieving the best possible outcome of winning a face-off: efficient scoring.
In the debate about whether face-offs matter in a box lacrosse game, my argument against has been, “So what if you lose it? Make the stop in your defensive end and get the ball back.” If a team wins 100% of the draws in a game but doesn’t do anything with them, i.e. score in the immediate shift after that win, then what was the point of winning it?
So, I started tracking both, because I’m curious to see how often a team scores/gets scored on in that first possession following a face-off win. My hope is to see the teams that are the best at preventing goals on that first possession, worst at stopping transition, and seeing how many goals are scored due to a FOW. NLL 2023-24 Opening Weekend wasn’t a good showing in my favor that it’s not important, especially the Rush vs. Thunderbirds game. Thanks, Wiz.
Why am I providing ammunition to use against myself? Good question.
Photo Credit: Trevor MacMillan/Halifax Thunderbirds