Thunderbirds as Ghidorah; Hutchcraftwork; Short Kings
Be afraid of the settled Thunderbirds, the numbers behind Riley Hutchcraft this season, and a quick revisit of shorthanded silliness
Photo Credit: Micheline Veluvolu/Rochester Knighthawks
Peeling the curtain back a bit: I typically don’t go into writing these articles with any idea of what I want to wax poetic on. Sometimes I’ll take notes while watching or scoring a game, a potential topic or area of interest I’m noticing before having the stats in front of me. Sometimes I just pore through the 2023-24 NLL Team Stats doc until something sticks out. Sometimes I revisit old stomping grounds because it was the holiday weekend and that time and energy was spent with family.
All three of those happened for this article, bridging the gap until we get to my promised land: all 18 teams having played four games. Seven NLL squads have only played twice, meaning diving into trends and pointing with some assuredness at individual strengths and weaknesses is a ways off. Get here soon, Week 7.
Off the light holiday weekend, let’s dive into the last article on TyMerLacrosse.com until 2024. I’ll liken the Thunderbirds to a Japanese kaiju, provide why I think Hutchcraft being the starter for the foreseeable future is a good thing for the Knighthawks, and celebrate short kings.
As always, power rankings at the end. They matter this time; I promise.
Photo Credit: James Bennett/Halifax Thunderbirds
Thunderbirds = King Ghidorah
The Halifax Thunderbirds have a +14 TrueES goal differential. The only team close to matching that number is the 3-0 Albany FireWolves at +11 and with an extra game in hand.
It’s just two games played and against one team that started off incredibly slow and another team that’s a mess, but big numbers are still big numbers, and hot damn does the easternmost NLL team have a huge number.
If you’re not used to me harping on how important 5-on-5 is and haven’t ingrained that philosophy, then hopefully this finally gets that message through. Averaging seven more ESG than your opponent in a game is looney — unsustainable, but as gaudy as the Met Gala.
Most of that damage was done in Week 1 against the Rush. The TBirds drove home 12 ESG compared to just one for the visiting team. They didn’t summon lightning with their wings against the Riptide, only outscoring them by three settled goals, but most of that was due to the contentious nature of the game featuring plenty of penalties and the Thunderbirds dominating the TrueFB game, posting a 30.8 TrueFBE% compared to the ’Tide’s 8.3%.
It’s impossible to overstate how good goalie Warren Hill and this defense have been 5-on-5 in their two games. Hill has a .960 ESSv%, and the defense is causing foes to waste 30.7% of their ESSets; league average for both are .882 and 22.3, respectively.
Let’s flip it to the other side of the floor. Clarke Petterson and the Halifax offense just pounded home their settled opportunities against the Rush, finishing with a 19.7 ESE% (that’s the highest ESE% in a single game this season, just edging out the 19.6% recorded by the Rush against the Desert Dogs on Dec. 15). That number fell to 9.4% against the Riptide, but again, see penalties and transition.
One flaw that sticks out is the Thunderbirds swing wide when they shoot the rock, as they have a 63.6 ESSOG%, the second lowest in this stat in the NLL (ahead of the Rush at 61.9% — yes, it’s weird how much the Rush are popping up when comparing them to the Thunderbirds). But the Maritimes’ team also fires more 5-on-5 shots on and off cage than any other NLL squad — +51 shot differential, +33 shot on goal differential, 53.5 S/GAME — and have the second most shots on goal per game in the NLL at 34.0 SOG/GAME (behind the Mammoth with 37.0 SOG/GAME).
No matter how you slice it, the Thunderbirds are a problem this season, a three-headed monster boasting a diverse offense, a belligerent defense, and Jake Withers balancing the entire floor.
Photo Credit: Micheline Veluvolu/Rochester Knighthawks
Hutchcraftwork
Riley Hutchcraft’s second relief appearance this season got an eyebrow raise from me after poring over his save and goal types.
His 21 saves in 24:12 min. produced a 7.44 GAA and .875 Sv% for the game. Those three goals he gave up were quite intriguing, as none were scored 5-on-5. The 26-year-old gave up a shorthanded marker and a pair of extra attacker goals. It makes sense that the Warriors even strength chances weren’t as prolific as earlier in the game considering they were down but not out late and went EA with a healthy amount of time left in the fourth quarter, evidenced by their 8 EASets in the final frame. That was half the amount of ESSets Hutchcraft faced on Saturday.
It got me wondering how Hutchcraft has performed in relief this season. So far, he’s given up a pair of ESG, 1 PPG, 1 FBG, a SHFBG, and 3 EAG (side note, the Knighthawks in general have not been good defending the extra attacker; 8.3% of their sets against have been EA, and teams are scoring on 23.8% of those possessions and posting a 9.5% EALP%). His save percentage while settled is .957 across 49 ESSets, which is absurd. Those 49 ESSets are also 51.0% of the sets he was between the pipes for in those two games; plenty of time was spent shutting down transition (15.7%) and extra attacker (15.6%) situations
If you took away his lone start this season, Hutchcraft would have a 7.06 GAA and .867 Sv%. But we can’t selectively ignore history (I can, but it’s my site), and that start is on his resume as much as his relief appearances. So, we factor in the 14 he gave up against the Rush back in Week 2 and find out…
Oh. He’s still really good 5-on-5.
With that game included, the Mimico product has given up 6 ESG across 97 ESSets, a 5.2 ESE% for opponents across 121:01 min. of action. It’s a ridiculous .935 ESSv%. The Knighthawks let opponents run on them a bit when he’s between the pipes, as that’s 17.9% of the shifts he faces (league average for TrueFBSets is 14.7%), and the only goalie to face nearly as much extra attacker firepower is Nick Damude for PCLC.
How Hutchcraft works as a starter is going to be a key storyline for the Knighthawks. I can’t imagine Rylan Hartley coming back anytime soon this season given how shaken up he looked after that shot to the mask that chased him from Saturday’s game and given his prior history with concussions — by imagine, I mean his health is more important than a game, let’s do the right thing here. So for the foreseeable future, the cage is Hutchcraft’s.
We’re dealing with small samples, but him being very solid 5-on-5 is a great sign for the Knighthawks, even if his numbers will very likely regress towards the league average .867 ESSv%. But if he’s strong in that game and the team cleans up those transition chances against, then the Knighthawks will continue to be a championship contender.
This whole section gave me an idea I don’t have time for and will implement anyways. Stay tuned.
Photo Credit: John Harrison/Colorado Mammoth
Short Kings
Last week, I touched on the uptick in shorthanded goals being scored to start the season, and Week 4 kept that trend going with a vengeance.
24 shorthanded goals have been scored in the 19 NLL games played this month, 1.3 per game. Friendly reminder that there were just 16 potted in 20 games last December, meaning 2023-24 NLL teams are scoring half a goal more per game. With the Swarm’s pair and Owen Grant’s hat trick goal, 10 teams have now recorded a shorthanded tally.
The split remains still in favor of traditional shorthanded attempts, 13-11 against their transition counterparts. Digging deeper, the split provides an 8.4 SHE% in 155 of same set type and a 22.9 SHFBE% in 48 sets.
If teams continue scoring 1.3 SHG/GAME, that’s 176 after 135 played, 71 more than what was scored last season.
I don’t really plan on harping on this week in and week out; it’s just too interesting to not provide an update on. Sticks are fire early this season, and teams are finding success while down a man. I’d imagine teams make adjustments and those numbers fall down to earth, but it’s still a fun storyline early in the season.
Photo Credit: Colleen Shaw/Panther City LC
Power Rankings — Week 5
Friendly reminder:
An NLL season is a marathon, not a race. Placement is based on what teams show over a period of time. Just because a team completely revamped their roster in the offseason or beat a team that was above them in the rankings one week doesn’t mean they automatically jump up spots.
Records are not what I base rankings on. If a team wins 14 games to start the season and then drops the next four badly, then that recent performance will weigh more than them having the best record that season.
This is supposed to be fun. I take this mildly seriously, but it’s just, like, my opinion, man. It’s not worth getting worked up over.
Nine teams not playing kept things pretty stationary this week, as nine teams didn’t move from last week’s placement. We’re still trying to figure out who’s for real this early on, contextualizing every win and loss and thinking way too hard about the whole exercise.
Or maybe I’m just a liar and took it easy during the holidays. Who knows. Here’s how I see it:
15. New York Riptide (0-2)
Previous ranking: 15
Week 4 results: Did not play
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (1-2)
Previous ranking: 14
Week 4 results: Did not play
13. Saskatchewan Rush (1-2)
Previous ranking: 13
Week 4 results: Did not play
12. Vancouver Warriors (1-2)
Previous ranking: 12
Week 4 results: 13-11 loss to the Knighthawks
11. Philadelphia Wings (1-2)
Previous ranking: 11
Week 4 results: Did not play
10. Colorado Mammoth (0-2)
Previous ranking: 10
Week 4 results: 15-8 loss to the Swarm
9. Calgary Roughnecks (0-2)
Previous ranking: 9
Week 4 results: Did not play
8. Panther City LC (1-2)
Previous ranking: 7
Week 4 results: 13-10 loss to the Rock
7. Georgia Swarm (2-1)
Previous ranking: 8
Week 4 results: 15-8 win against the Mammoth
6. Halifax Thunderbirds (2-0)
Previous ranking: 6
Week 4 results: Did not play
5. San Diego Seals (1-1)
Previous ranking: 4
Week 4 results: Did not play
4. Rochester Knighthawks (3-0)
Previous ranking: 5
Week 4 results: 13-11 win against the Warriors
3. Albany FireWolves (3-0)
Previous ranking: 3
Week 4 results: Did not play
2. Buffalo Bandits (1-1)
Previous ranking: 2
Week 4 results: Did not play
1. Toronto Rock (2-0)
Previous ranking: 1
Week 4 results: 13-10 win against Panther City