Week 5 Pt. 2 — Missing Film; Goals Scored Off the Draw
Part 2 of a doubleheader following Week 5 NLL action: Missing film in the Saddledome, goals scored off the draw, and another pointless power rankings
Photo Credit: Christian Bender/Toronto Rock
This is part 2 of what was originally a mammoth article touching on way too much following Week 5 of the 2023-24 National Lacrosse League season. Read part 1 here.
Let’s skip the preamble and get into missing film and what it objectively means, goals scored off the draw, and the first power rankings of 2024.
Photo Credit: Jenn Pierce/Calgary Roughnecks
Missing Film
On Saturday night during the Las Vegas Desert Dogs and Calgary Roughnecks game, the feed for ESPN dropped suddenly, getting frozen for a few seconds on the possession following Jesse King’s second goal of the game. The broadcast didn’t pick back up until well into halftime, meaning that the final three minutes of the first half of that game — during which Liam LeClair scored his first goal of the season — are lost to everyone (at least stateside) that weren’t in Scotiabank Saddledome.
It’s absolutely infuriating for me, as that film is what I base my stats on. Without it, I’m missing six or more sets and all the shots and saves and goals that were in it. If there’s nothing to review, then teams and players’ performances take a hit. Knowing LeClair’s game, I’m confident he scored in transition, but that’s an educated guess because I watch more NLL than 99.9% of you.
This wasn’t the first time this season that a broadcast cut out. The season opener — Sask versus Halifax — missed 1:30 min. in the second quarter, not as egregious as the LVvCGY matchup, but certainly a black eye in the very first broadcast of the season.
At the end of the day, it’s just a few sets/shots out of thousands that will transpire throughout the year. But I’m not really doing this project because it’s fun, and I want it to be right and defensible. Feeds dropping for whatever reason harm that, although I know that’s not really an issue for the NLL, nor am I suggesting my angst bother them in that regard.
Circle of influence; it’s out of my control. Woo sah.
All that said and with time between the event and when I’m writing this having me in a much calmer state, let’s recognize this fact: there’s only been two broadcast issues where live game action was lost this month. Two out of 26 games so far this season. Remember B/R Live when there was an issue every weekend, hell, what felt like every game early on in that broadcast partnership?
The NLL and its broadcasts’ reliability have really come a long way over the last decade. Cast your opinions regarding the quality of broadcast crews or directors or cameramen, but the amount of times a feed just drops on everyone have continued to go down each season. So far out of 1,570:10 minutes of NLL action this season, a little over four-and-a-half minutes of it are lost. That’s not even a third of a percentage point in time missed, a blip in the system.
So, sorry to Vegas and Calgary; I’m probably off a little bit in your actual numbers from last Saturday. And I’m still pissed the footage is gone, but it’s not worth letting it infuriate me endlessly. NLL broadcast reliability is strong. Hopefully, it’ll be 100% reliable in the very near future.
Photo Credit: James Bennett/Halifax Thunderbirds
Goals Scored Off the Draw
I have a month’s worth of data to use, so it’s about time we take a look at how often teams score a goal on the shift immediately following a face-off win and how many of those are in transition or more settled (or power play).
First, let’s go over what constitutes a goal scored off a face-off win and the two types.
A team wins the draw, either cleanly to the player that won it or getting the loose ball and first possession, and then the very next shift they play, they score on it. If they take it home seconds after the win while the teams are transitioning to offense, that’s a FOFBG (face-off fast break goal); these usually occur in seconds. If a team wins the possession by popping the ball way into their defensive zone, they’re probably not doing this.
More than likely, they’re setting up 5-on-5 (or 4-on-4 or power play). If they score on that set, then it’s a FOESG (face-off even strength goal; I know a power play isn’t even strength, but the important distinguishing factor of this whole stat is separating more established sets from transition opportunities). If they get a reset on their first shot for a multiple possession and score on the next for the multiple possession goal, it does not count as a FOESG.
We care about what teams do with their very first possession after they win a face-off, as that’s the most optimal result of winning one.
Also, let’s say a team wins possession, but their opponent causes a turnover before they can get an established set. There is no FOESG or FOFBG if the team causing the turnover scored. We’re trying to figure out how impactful winning draws are.
All that out of the way, there have been 1,434 face-offs this NLL season, meaning there have been 717 face-off wins. Out of those 717 FOW, 78 of them have resulted in a goal in that very first post-win set. Teams are scoring on 10.8% of their FOW, which, if I’m being honest, is higher than I expected.
Teams collectively have scored 59 of them in a more settled set, and the other 19 have been in fast break situations.
Best team at scoring these? The Halifax Thunderbirds (14 FOESG, 4 FOFBG) because they walloped the Rush with 11 of them during the season opener. Pencil in the Rush as the worst team at preventing these types of goals (13 FOESG, 5 FOFBG). The Wings haven’t scored either of these types of goals, and the Thunderbirds and Rock haven’t had any scored against them, which, yeah, that makes sense, their FOW% are above 78.9%.
One team that’s been strong at this are the FireWolves with 11 (8 FOESG, 3 FOFBG). Twenty percent of all of their goals are scored on their very first possession post-face-off win. They’re another team with a silly face-off win percentage at 72.8 FOW%.
I expect the numbers to go down, as we had one outlier really skew everything. But it’s not like taking out that SASvHFX game is really helping, as teams still convert on 9.7% of those opportunities.
At the end of the day, we’re still learning a lot about face-offs. Let’s see how it pans out at the end of April.
Photo Credit: Mike Hetzel/Buffalo Bandits
Power Rankings — Week 5
Friendly reminder:
An NLL season is a marathon, not a race. Placement is based on what teams show over a period of time. Just because a team completely revamped their roster in the offseason or beat a team that was above them in the rankings one week doesn’t mean they automatically jump up spots.
Records are not what I base rankings on. If a team wins 14 games to start the season and then drops the next four badly, then that recent performance will weigh more than them having the best record that season.
This is supposed to be fun. I take this mildly seriously, but it’s just, like, my opinion, man. It’s not worth getting worked up over.
New Year’s resolutions are for chumps, just like power rankings. Chumps:
15. New York Riptide (0-3)
Previous ranking: 15
Week 5 results: 14-8 loss to the Rock
14. Las Vegas Desert Dogs (1-3)
Previous ranking: 14
Week 5 results: 17-11 loss to the Roughnecks
13. Vancouver Warriors (1-3)
Previous ranking: 12
Week 5 results: 12-11 OT loss to the Mammoth
12. Saskatchewan Rush (1-3)
Previous ranking: 13
Week 5 results: 11-10 OT loss to the FireWolves
11. Panther City LC (1-2)
Previous ranking: 8
Week 5 results: Did not play
10. Colorado Mammoth (1-2)
Previous ranking: 10
Week 5 results: 12-11 OT win against the Warriors
9. Calgary Roughnecks (1-2)
Previous ranking: 9
Week 5 results: 17-11 win against the Desert Dogs
8. Philadelphia Wings (2-2)
Previous ranking: 11
Week 5 results: 16-15 OT win against the Thunderbirds
7. Halifax Thunderbirds (2-1)
Previous ranking: 6
Week 5 results: 16-15 OT loss to the Wings
6. Rochester Knighthawks (3-1)
Previous ranking: 4
Week 5 results: 17-14 loss to the Seals
5. Georgia Swarm (3-1)
Previous ranking: 7
Week 5 results: 9-8 win against the Bandits
4. Buffalo Bandits (1-2)
Previous ranking: 2
Week 5 results: 9-8 loss to the Swarm
3. San Diego Seals (2-1)
Previous ranking: 5
Week 5 results: 17-14 win against the Knighthawks
2. Albany FireWolves (4-0)
Previous ranking: 3
Week 5 results: 11-10 OT win against the Rush
1. Toronto Rock (3-0)
Previous ranking: 1
Week 5 results: 14-8 win against the Riptide